Berlin. The President of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Martin Jäger, has issued a public warning: Germany risks finding itself in an "armed conflict with Russia." He gave this assessment on Monday, October 5, 2026, during the annual open hearings at the Bundestag's Parliamentary Oversight Committee, according to tagesschau.
According to Jäger, no other state currently poses such a direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany as Russia. As an example, he cited an attempted terrorist attack in Leipzig. In his assessment, Russian intelligence services act "highly professionally and ruthlessly," so the danger of attacks on targets in Germany remains "real and urgent." He called intelligence the "first line of defense."
A "Shadow War" Against Europe
The BND chief described the current confrontation as an undeclared "shadow war" that cannot be fit into conventional military or legal categories. According to him, the Kremlin's goal is to ensure that Berlin and other European capitals no longer adopt decisions directed against Moscow, and above all to halt European support for Ukraine.
Jäger noted that since the summer, Russia has noticeably intensified its war against Ukraine while simultaneously trying to disrupt arms supplies. According to him, Germans should prepare for new attempts at intimidation, interference, and likely repeated nuclear threats.
No Major Attack on NATO Expected for Now
At the same time, the BND currently sees no signs of preparations for a large-scale Russian attack on Alliance territory. However, particularly in the Baltic region, "low-threshold military actions" by Russia are possible — that is, provocations below the level of open war.
Sabotage, Disinformation, and Elections
The President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Sinan Selen, confirmed: Russia is prepared for both sabotage and assassinations. Some threats have already been averted, but the situation is escalating. Whereas Russian influence operations previously concentrated on federal elections, they are now also being recorded ahead of state and municipal elections — the goal being to sow discord and uncertainty through disinformation.
Selen also responded to a question about the possible participation of the AfD in a Saxony-Anhalt government: according to him, sensitive data, especially in areas of interest to Russia, must be protected, so full information sharing in such a case could prove impossible.
The President of the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD), Martina Rosenberg, added that the Bundeswehr faces threats both from outside and from within.
More Powers for the Intelligence Services
All three agency heads spoke in favor of reforming the intelligence services. The government has already approved a draft law that the Bundestag has yet to consider: it provides that in certain cases the services will be able not only to gather information but also to act operationally — for example, to stop cyberattacks or disrupt enemy military projects.
What This Means for Ukrainians in Germany
For the Ukrainian community in Germany, this is an important signal: German intelligence services directly link Russian attacks on Germany to attempts to halt aid to Ukraine. It is worth treating unverified messages on social media and messengers critically, especially ahead of elections, and reporting suspicious "side job" offers — photographing facilities, arson, delivering packages — to the police: this is precisely how Russia often recruits perpetrators of sabotage.
This material was prepared based on a tagesschau report dated October 5, 2026. The text is an independent Ukrainian retelling, not a verbatim translation.